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à : 17H00 locale

Bonjour

Le service de prévision des ouragans de l'université du colorado, dirigé par Philip J. Klotzbach1 a publié ce jour ses dernières prévisions pour l'année 2019.

Elles sont en légère augmention par rapport à celles d'avril, soit une prévision de 13 tempêtes nommées (54 jours), 5 ouragans dont 2 majeurs (25 jours). Pour ceux qui veullent lire l'étude complète c'est ICI

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE

ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2019

We have increased our forecast slightly and now believe that 2019 will have

approximately average activity. There remains considerable uncertainty as to whether El

Niño conditions will persist through the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic

has warmed slightly faster than normal over the past few weeks and now has nearaverage

sea surface temperatures. We anticipate a near-average probability for major

hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is

the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one

hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the

same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

(as of 4 June 2019)

By Philip J. Klotzbach1, Michael M. Bell2, and Jhordanne Jones3

In Memory of William M. Gray4

This discussion as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at

http://tropical.colostate.edu

Anne Manning, Colorado State University media representative, is coordinating media

inquiries into this forecast. She can be reached at 970-491-7099 or

anne.manning@colostate.edu.

Department of Atmospheric Science

Colorado State University

Fort Collins, CO 80523

Email: philk@atmos.colostate.edu

Project Sponsors:

1 Research Scientist

2 Associate Professor

3 Graduate Research Assistant

4 Professor Emeritus